These days China's numbers matter as much, if not more, than America's numbers. There was therefore more than the usual interest, when China announced its Q1 numbers yesterday.
- Growth is actually good, and forget whether it was dot on with expectations.
- Growth is being led by domestic consumption and investment, making up for poor exports (isn't this what the world has been clamouring for ?)
- Massive infrastructure spending and investment is happening - Will all this be really productive or will they be bridges to nowhere ?
- If you look objectively, China was overheating in the past and is now on a more even keel.
- The worry continues to be the banking sector. Massive lending for investment has happened. How much of this will truly yield returns. I know the published percentage of non performing assets is not high, but I am almost sure this is hugely understated.
- The story that there will be social unrest if 8% growth is not achieved in bunkum. I simply cannot relate to this logic
- Inflation in the medium term is a real real threat. God help if commodity prices around the world (especially oil prices shoot up).
One other thought struck me. Its only Apr 16. How come such numbers come out so early. Many companies cannot meet such a deadline. But a whole nation - and that too as huge as China?