Saturday, November 7, 2009

Work Wife Balance

This weekend's irreverent post is a guest post in le embrouille blogueur's blog. I am flirting with deep danger by continuing to needle the fair ladies, but then, this Sunday is that sort of a Sunday. Ladies - this is all just for some idle fun ; don't take anything seriously ! Click here to read this post.

Friday, November 6, 2009

The taxman and Windows 7

If you are in India and wanted to buy a Windows 7 box, you could not do it legally. Never mind that Windows 7 was released globally about 2 weeks ago. Never mind that much of Windows 7 development happened in India. Why ? Because the babus (pedantic officer) at Customs wanted to tax the stuff twice !!

This is an example of the nonsensical complexity that abounds in India’s taxation law and the missionary zeal with which the babu wants to implement them – methinks the ultimate frustrated guy is the Indian babu and his only source of pleasure in life is from creating and implementing mind boggling complexity.

Take the Windows 7 situation. The product is the standard software box with a CD and a manual in it. Because it’s a box, it’s a physical product. Therefore customs duty on the “product” is to be levied. Then the box contains a CD which gives you a license to use the software. Giving the license to use is a “service”. So they want to again charge service tax on the same box. Tax the same stuff twice - once as a product and once as a servie. Only the warped mind of an Indian babu can come up with such logic. Boxed software sales in India have fallen by 40% as the boxes gather dust in the customs warehouse. Furious lobbying, intricate clarifications from the mandarins in Delhi, millions of manhours of intense activity and the boxes seem to be ready to leave the shipyard now.

Examples abound of such inanity. Many years ago, I knew of a case of a producer of jams. In one budget, the government decided that jams should be exempt from excise duty as an incentive to fruit farmers. The producer of jams heaved a sigh of relief. But the next day, the babus descended on the poor guy. They said that while manufacturing jam, he starts by dissolving sugar in water , the act of which was the “production” of sugar syrup. He doesn’t have to pay excise duty on jams, but would he please pay excise duty on sugar syrup. The producer protested that he wasn’t producing sugar syrup – he was just executing a step in the manufacture of jams. NO. The babus , with great glee, were “enforcing the law”. The producer asked that instead of dissolving sugar in water, if he first mixed the fruit pulp and then added sugar in the mix, would that be OK? Yes; that was absolutely fine to the babu. No “sugar syrup” was being “manufactured” and that was fine !!!

Needless complexity and zealotry in arcane interpretations bedevil our taxation system. One one hand it leads to misery for a guy who wants to follow the law. On the other hand, it provides myriad opportunities for corruption. We should simply exterminate the tax babu. Bring a common rate of taxation on everything. Make the damn thing simple . And then enforce it ruthlessly. If the system was simple, the rate of tax was reasonable, and the penalties for evasion harsh, most people will quietly pay their taxes. I am quite prepared for a special fund to be created out of my taxes to create an opulent bordello where we can banish the tax babus for them to get their kicks, and leave us poor folk in peace.

FAIL OFTEN. FAIL EARLY. FAIL CHEAP.

Rapidly evolving technologies and market adjustments have thrust media into states of nearly perpetual alteration that require agile and swift responses to gain benefits and defend the firm from outside forces.

Managers who have been used to stable environments and well conceived plans are often reticent to move to seize opportunities with quick and decisive action based on incomplete information and knowledge. The turbulent contemporary environment, however, require leaders to rapidly evaluate the potential of new communication opportunities and to take risks in a highly uncertain setting.

This is disturbing to managers who are used to employing well developed and elegant strategies that require significant investment and commitment. Declining to test opportunities until a clear roadmap is produced, however, takes away flexibility and the ability to rapidly change with contemporary developments.

While preserving the core activities of media businesses, managers need to simultaneously look for emerging opportunities that can be pursued, communities that can been served, and experiences that can be delivered. It is important to get in quick and inexpensively, to build on small successes, and to abandon initiatives if success proves elusive.

It is better to fail often, fail early, and fail cheap than to avoid risky moves, lose potentially rewarding opportunities, and forgo learning from innovative initiatives.

In the current tumultuous environment, failure has become a form of research and development. Try things; drop those that don't take you somewhere interesting; document what you learn from each unsuccessful initiative; move on to something new. What you learn from unsuccessful efforts is usually more important that what you from success.

The only real failure in the rapidly changing world of media is doing nothing and hoping things will get better on their own,

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

The right royal mess at GM Europe

Politicians should, in general, not meddle in business. A great illustration of this danger is the mess brewing in General Motors Europe.

Facts of the case are as follows. When GM was entering bankruptcy last year, the fate of GM Europe was in serious doubt. In any case GM Europe had too much of manufacturing capacity in Germany, the UK , Spain and Belgium. Even under normal circumstances a big restructuring was inevitable. Now there was serious threat of complete closure.

In waded the politicians. No less than the redoubtable Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany. She was coming up for an election. In Germany, auto workers are next only to God. No way was she allowing job losses amongst auto workers in Germany. So she forced an auction, put together a curious alliance of a Canadian spare parts manufacturer (Magna) and a Russian bank (Sberbank) to buy GM Europe. She then offered them $6.6 bn (yes 6.6 billion) and they had to commit no closures and job losses in Germany. Unsaid, but obvious, was – I don’t care what happens in Britain and Belgium – you can go and shut those. She forced a reluctant GM to agree to this ; at that time GM was weaving drunkenly on the ropes and in no position to even talk back to Merkel.

Now Britain, Belgium & Spain would not take this lying down. But they didn’t have the money to do anything about it. But a case is on in the European Union’s competition commission against the German plan. Merkel is no fool – she knows how to twist the Commission and get what she wants. So there the situation lay.

In waded the US of A. The US government has been overseeing the restructuring of GM. One of their demands has been for GM to produce greener and smaller cars. Now GM was doing a fair bit of development of such cars in Europe. If GM Europe went away, all that would be lost.

GM was also not too keen to sell GM Europe to Magna. They saw them, and especially the Russian connection, as competition and did not want all that technology to go to them for them to compete with GM in Russia where Chevrolet is doing pretty well. And how could they be a global company with no business in Europe ?

GM has got over its hangover now having come out of Chapter 11. It is now not mortally terrified of Merkel. So it said a couple of days back, that it was pulling out of the deal that she had forced on them.

There’s complete chaos. The Germans are absolutely furious (holy cow – plant closures in Germany and those b$%# Americans are backing out). The British are delighted (less job losses in the UK). The Russians are livid (not really sure why). The Americans are smug. GM is bracing for a huge fight. With all the politicians mucking about, what chance does GM Europe have ?

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

The "Ants" of China

China places an enormous value on education – both the society and the government are, rightly, obsessed with it. As a nation it has done a fantastic job of educating huge chunks of its population and providing them with job opportunities. But it’s a massive task and sometimes education and jobs are not always in tandem. This was brought out to me in vivid detail when I read the book review of Ants (Yizu), a book in Chinese by Lian Si, a post doctoral student in Beijing.

Considering the scale of the task, China has been immensely successful in educating its population. In fact, so successful, that it has become a problem. In 2009, China produced more than 6 million college graduates. That gives it the headache of creating 6 million additional jobs every year. Not factory worker jobs, but skilled jobs befitting university graduates. How on earth do you add 6 million jobs year after year ? Just for appreciating the scale, the entire outsourcing industry in India, an undoubted success story, employs only 2 million people. And China has to find work for 6 million graduates, every year.

Ants is the story of the educated who can either not get a job at all, or get only a low wage job. They find it impossible to live in the inner city in the great metropolises of China – Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou. They gravitate towards distant suburbs where the rents are affordable. Lian Si calls these localities “slums of intellectuals” and likens them to ant colonies in a positive sense. Ants are extremely diligent, hard working and smart. And they live in their own colonies

Lian Si lived among these ants as research for his book. He says they are mostly from the rural areas and were the product of China’s thrust into university enrollment. They went to college with a dream, but the real word has taught them a few lessons. In the last couple of years they have run bang into a saturated job market. After graduation, they neither have the money, nor the connections, so important in China. They therefore retreat to communal village living by creating “ant colonies”. They now live eight to a room and commute two hours one way to whatever work they can find. But they never give up and strive for a better future.

Chinese society is undergoing massive change today ; a change of such magnitude and speed that few societies in the world have seen. The ants, suggests Lian Si, will be a generation that will determine the future of China in the next 10 to 20 years.

A similar situation exists in India, of course, but I wrote about China because I stumbled on this book review. I wish I could read it, but alas, I fear I may never get around to learning to read Chinese. Echoing in my mind is a beautiful quote from Lian Si’s “ant friend” that perhaps sums up their attitude to life. “I don’t think I am a loser”, said his friend. “Its just that I haven’t succeeded as yet”.

Monday, November 2, 2009

If something is too good to be true, it is too good to be true

Since the beginning of the year, the prices of all sorts of risky assets – shares, oil, etc have increased by fantastic proportions. Take equity. In virtually any market in the world, you would have made returns of 50% plus, even if you are an idiot. Did somebody say we were in the midst of a huge crisis ? Here was massive money to be made, by just being there. Sounds too good to be true ?? As the old saying goes, when something is too good to be true, it usually is.

I read a very interesting article by Nouriel Roubini, the highly respected Professor from New York’s Stern School of Business, in today’s Financial Times. Its somewhat technical, although very readable. I commend even a layman to read this. At the risk of extreme oversimplification, I will paraphrase his argument as follows

- Interest rates are extremely low and will be maintained at very low levels by the US Fed to stimulate the economy
- The dollar is falling. Because it is falling, everybody is short selling the dollar.
- Short selling the dollar essentially means that you can borrow at negative rates of interest, as long as the dollar is falling .
- Invest this in any risky asset – say shares in Hong Kong. Prices of those shares will rise as demand for them increases.
- One month later (or whatever), sell the shares and make a tidy profit. Now these are worth much more in US$ terms as the US$ has fallen. Settle your short sale of the US$ and make a huge profit.
- Repeat step 1 to 5 again.

This is what Prof Roubini is arguing is happening. Of course, this cannot go on for ever. One day the dollar will not fall. Then like a herd on stampede , everybody will sell the risky assets and cover their short positions on the dollar. The bubble will truly burst.

That’s what usually happens to bubbles. When asset prices rise by 70% in 9 months, it is a bubble. The bigger it gets, the worse will be the explosion.

If you want any more evidence that Prof Roubini’s views must be taken seriously, read what he said

“In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession. He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt. These developments, he went on, could cripple or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial institutions”

The date ? Sep 7, 2006.

Just because somebody was right once, it does not mean that he will be right again. But it would be completely foolish not to listen to him.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Oh, the joys of village life

A couple of generations ago, our great grandparents made the decision to leave their villages and move to the city, largely in search of a better life. In just two or three generations, we have completely lost the understanding of what village life is. One company decided, many decades ago, that city bred yuppies, who it was mostly recruiting as trainees, must spend two months in a village to reacquaint themselves with rural India. This is a story of that “fantastic” experience – it is set in India, but could equally be true of many other countries.

Picture the setting. A truly representative village in a lawless part of India. Modern conveniences have not yet reached the place. No electricity. No plumbing. No nothing. But warm people. The day starts with daybreak and ends with sunset. The most precious possession in life is the buffalo.

Into this setting, in walks our city yuppie. He is ritually welcomed into the house by the lord of the house with the reassurance that he would be completely safe, as the host had two guns proudly displayed in the room. With some trepidation at this reassurance, he walks in.

Our yuppie is given the most important room in the house. This is currently being occupied by the most important possession of the family – the buffalo. The guest is being honoured with bovine company for the two months he would stay there. His olfactory senses would be irreversibly heightened for the rest of his life.

The event of the decade, perhaps of a lifetime, in the village would come the next morning, when its time for the guest to have his bath. Of course, this would be a set in idyllic settings – at the village pump or well. The whole village, especially all the womenfolk, are peeping from vantage viewing sights completely enjoying the spectacle. The sight of the metro male in full flow, accompanied by much giggling, will be the subject of local folklore for the next five decades.

But prior to that, a rather more private, but even more hilarious event has happened. Early in the morning, the host escorts our yuppie to the fields to , ahem, you know what. The host has been told that enjoying the scenery during the act would be something his guest has not been used to and therefore the host must tutor his guest on the ways of village life. The two set out on a walk to the fields carrying a “lotta” each. The fields are neck high with unharvested crop – our yuppie is rather thankful that they provide a good screen . But what he doesn’t know is that the crop also hides a rather generous population of peacocks, who do not take kindly to humans intruding on their patch. Imagine the scene – our yuppie settling down, thinking that this isn’t so bad after all. And then suddenly …. From here comes the picture postcard of the whole experience – a yuppy running for his life, with his trousers down to his ankles, chased by a peacock !!

Enough of such matters. That evening the male VIPs of the village congregate to know the yuppie better. The women are in the shadows listening extremely intently. One of the early questions is, of course, how many wives does our yuppy have. Now , if our hero had been properly tutored, he would have answered that he had three, two of them from important mafia families. But in his naivety, he has admitted that he is only 23 and is therefore wonderfully single; (Sri, please note!). Now that piece of information is met with unbelievable astonishment. They cannot comprehend that a strapping male , such as he, can actually be “available”. An earnest discussion ensures. One concerned elder, sidles upto the yuppie, to ask him in a low voice, as to whether he had , er, a certain problem, for which remedies are advertised in plenty in Page 2 of the Indian newspapers. The yuppie, having turned bright red, assures the elder that he is, ahem, fully in possession of his faculties. The matter is settled. The headman’s daughter is a perfect match. Next Friday is an auspicious day. Would that be OK with the honoured guest ??

This saga may be continued on idle Sundays , in continued proof that the writer has ‘lost it'.